3-Month Treasury Bill
No hemos podido cargar esta serie
Correlation between UST 3M and Bitcoin, S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold and oil
Think of it this way
It is the safest investment there is: lending to the United States government for three months. Anything else that wants your money has to offer you more than this, or there is no point in taking the risk.
What is 3-Month Treasury Bill?
It is the yield on three-month US government debt. It is practically the risk-free asset par excellence.
How to read 3-Month Treasury Bill
It tracks the Fed's rate very closely. If it breaks away downward, the market is pricing in rate cuts; upward, hikes. Lag: none; a rate is priced in on the same day.
What 3-Month Treasury Bill means for the market
It is the starting point of all valuations. When the 3-month bill yields more than the stock market's dividend, many investors prefer not to take risks.
Where the money flows
An investor hands money to the Treasury today and the Treasury pays it back in three months with a little extra. Example: a money market fund pays $98.75 for a bill that will return
What to watch in 3-Month Treasury Bill
Overlay it on IORB and see which one is higher. When the bill yields more, money market funds prefer to buy debt rather than leave money in the RRP, and that empties the RRP: it is the mechanism behind much of what happened between 2023 and 2025. When IORB is higher, money goes back to the Fed's window.
Reflects what the market expects the Fed to do in the very short term.