Cumulative Inflation by Presidential Term

Think of it this way

It is the odometer reset to zero on the day the driver changes. It measures the distance covered during that shift, not who drove better.

What is Cumulative Inflation by Presidential Term?

The same counter as year-to-date, but reset every four years, at the start of each presidential term in the United States. The starting point is the previous December's close, which is the price level the incoming president inherits. The January of the inauguration is still counted toward the outgoing term, because the incoming president governs only eleven days of that month.

How to read Cumulative Inflation by Presidential Term

A ramp that resets every four years, in February. What you read is the height each block reaches: they are directly comparable with one another because they all span the same length of time, which is not the case with the cumulative figure for the current decade. Lag: none; here inflation is the consequence, not the cause.

What Cumulative Inflation by Presidential Term means for the market

It does not move the market: it adds no new data; it regroups data already published. Its value is as context, and above all for structuring a discussion that is usually had from memory and with rough figures.

Where the money flows

No money moves here: it is the same increase in the cost of the basket, grouped into four-year periods instead of calendar years. Example: if it reads 20%, what cost 100 at the start of the term now costs 120.

What to watch in Cumulative Inflation by Presidential Term

Compare the heights of the completed blocks with one another, which is the only thing that makes this series useful: 1997-2000 accumulated 9.7%, 2001-2004 9.4%, 2005-2008 10.5%, 2009-2012 9.2%, 2013-2016 5.2%, 2017-2020 7.9% and 2021-2024 21.2%. And read it with a caveat: a president does not set prices. A pandemic, a war or an OPEC decision weigh more than any domestic policy, and the central bank that raises or cuts rates is independent of the government.

How much more expensive the basket has become since the current presidential term began.