Daily TGA Withdrawals

Think of it this way

It is the government opening the safe and paying. Every dollar that goes out shows up that same afternoon in the account of a retiree, a public employee or a supplier company, and from there it can be spent or invested.

What is Daily TGA Withdrawals?

It is the sum of everything the Treasury paid out in a day: civil servants' payroll, Social Security, Medicare, defense, interest on the debt, tax refunds and repayment of maturing debt.

How to read Daily TGA Withdrawals

Daily bars. You will see a clear monthly pattern: the first days of the month concentrate Social Security and pension payments. The exceptional spikes correspond to large debt maturities or semiannual interest payments. Lag: none; the move and its effect happen on the same day.

What Daily TGA Withdrawals means for the market

Government spending is a direct injection of liquidity into the private sector. The money moves from the Treasury's account at the Fed to the bank account of a citizen or a company, and at that moment a new bank reserve is created. It is available money that can end up in any asset.

Where the money flows

From the Treasury's account into a specific person's pocket. Example: on the 3rd of each month Social Security payments go out; the Treasury orders the transfer and that same afternoon millions of retirees have a higher balance at their bank. The same goes for a civil servant's salary, the invoice from the private company that built a military base or an income tax refund. That money enters a commercial bank and from there it is spent, saved or invested.

What to watch in Daily TGA Withdrawals

Look at the first three business days of each month: that is when pensions and large payments are concentrated, and you will see spikes that double the rest of the month. The window worth looking for is when those days fall in a week without large auction settlements: money goes out into the system and does not come back in, and that is the most favorable combination of the month for risk assets.

Everything that leaves the TGA lands in private bank accounts.